The 2025 Trustees Report says Social Security’s retirement fund (OASI) will be depleted in 2033, and the combined funds in 2034—at which point the program could still pay 77–81% of scheduled benefits from incoming payroll taxes. The disability fund (DI) remains solvent for the 75-year window. Here’s what that means—and what you can do. Social Security
Quick answer: the 2025 bottom line
- OASI (retirement & survivors): Depletion 2033 → 77% of scheduled benefits payable thereafter from ongoing revenues. Social Security
- DI (disability): No depletion projected through 2099 under intermediate assumptions. Social Security
- Combined OASDI (hypothetical): Depletion 2034 → 81% of scheduled benefits payable. (Combined accounting is illustrative; funds are separate by law.) Social Security
Bottom line: Without legislation, benefits do not vanish—but across-the-board cuts to what’s scheduled would take effect at depletion. Social Security
What the Trustees actually project (OASI, DI, combined)
The 2025 Annual Trustees Report details:
- Reserve levels falling as costs exceed income (since 2010 on a non-interest basis; since 2021 on a total basis).
- OASI depletion 2033, 77% payable; combined depletion 2034, 81% payable; DI solvent across 75 years.
- A 75-year actuarial deficit of 3.82% of taxable payroll and an open-group unfunded obligation of $25.1 trillion (PV). Social Security
Bottom line: The program needs either more revenue, lower scheduled benefits, or a mix to achieve long-term solvency (Trustees illustrate required magnitudes). Social Security
Why dates differ across Trustees vs. CBO and analysts
- CBO 2025 also shows combined exhaustion in 2034—very close to the Trustees’ baseline. Differences arise from economic/demographic assumptions (productivity, real interest rates, fertility, immigration). Congressional Budget Office
- Independent analyses (e.g., CRFB, CBPP) summarize the Trustees’ findings and sometimes quantify worse-case or policy-change scenarios. For example, CRFB notes the combined insolvency date moved earlier to 2034 vs. last year and the imbalance worsened; CBPP stresses uncertainty bands. CRFB+1
- Some post-report assessments suggest certain 2025 policy changes could accelerate depletion by a year or two (e.g., 2032 scenarios). Treat these as estimates, not official Trustees projections. Bipartisan Policy Center+1
Bottom line: Use Trustees (SSA) for the official baseline, and view CBO/think-tank numbers as corroboration or scenario tests. Social Security+1
What changed from 2024 to 2025
The Trustees highlight three notable shifts:
- Law change: the Social Security Fairness Act (enacted Jan 5, 2025) repealed WEP/GPO, raising benefits for some and worsening long-term finances.
- Assumptions: timing of fertility reaching its ultimate rate shifted later; labor-share assumption lowered.
- Result: actuarial deficit widened to 3.82% of payroll; combined depletion moved to 2034 (one year earlier than last year). Social Security
Bottom line: 2025’s changes nudge depletion earlier and increase the gap policymakers must close. Social Security
What happens at depletion—and what does not happen
- The trust funds’ reserves hit zero, but payroll taxes keep coming in. The program may pay only the percentage of scheduled benefits supported by ongoing revenue (77% OASI, 81% combined at depletion, per 2025). Social Security
- Benefits aren’t “gone,” and Congress can act before or after to change taxes, benefits, or both.
- DI is not projected to deplete in the 75-year window under current law. Social Security
Bottom line: Depletion is not bankruptcy—it’s a point where scheduled benefits exceed dedicated revenue absent legislative fixes. Social Security
2025 Social Security snapshot (key numbers at a glance)
| Measure | OASI (Retirement/Survivors) | DI (Disability) | Combined OASDI (illustrative) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Depletion year (2025 report) | 2033 | No depletion through 2099 | 2034 |
| Payable share at depletion | 77% of scheduled | — | 81% of scheduled |
| 75-yr actuarial balance | — | — | −3.82% of taxable payroll |
| Unfunded obligation (PV) | — | — | $25.1T (2025–2099) |
Sources: 2025 Trustees Report Highlights & Conclusion. Social Security
Bottom line: The gap is material but manageable with timely policy changes. Social Security
Action checklist: if you’re 55+ or already claiming
- Know the baseline: Plan under 2025 Trustees assumptions (2033/2034, 77–81% payable) and treat other scenarios as stress tests. Social Security
- Run a claiming-age scenario: Delaying benefits raises your monthly check permanently (not advice; test with SSA tools).
- Stress-test a 20–25% cut: If no legislation passes by 2033/2034, could you cover the gap via savings, work, or budget?
- Diversify income: Build non-Social-Security income streams (retirement accounts, HSA balances for healthcare, part-time work).
- Tax & Medicare planning: Coordinate withdrawals to manage AGI and potential IRMAA surcharges; consider Roth conversions/QCDs where appropriate (talk to a pro).
- Check survivor/DI rules: Ensure your spouse and dependents understand benefits that continue or change.
- Stay informed: Revisit this topic annually after each Trustees Report/CBO update.
Bottom line: You can’t control Congress, but you can control your plan—build room for uncertainty.
Disclaimer
This article is general information, not financial, tax, or legal advice. Social Security rules and projections change. Consult SSA resources and a qualified professional before making decisions.
FAQs
1) When will Social Security’s trust funds run out per the 2025 report?
OASI in 2033; combined OASDI in 2034. DI is not projected to deplete within 75 years. After depletion, ongoing revenues would cover 77% (OASI) and 81% (combined) of scheduled benefits. Social Security
2) Does “depletion” mean benefits go to zero?
No. Payroll taxes still come in. The program could pay a partial share of scheduled benefits (77–81% per 2025) unless Congress acts. Social Security
3) Why do some sources say 2034 and others 2033?
Different funds and methods: OASI alone is 2033; combined OASDI is 2034. CBO also shows 2034 combined using its own assumptions. Social Security+1
4) What changed since the 2024 report?
2025 factors include repeal of WEP/GPO (raising benefits) and updated fertility/labor-share assumptions—worsening the long-term balance and making 2034 the combined depletion year. Social Security
5) I heard a 23–25% “cut.” Is that accurate?
At depletion, the payable share is projected at 77–81%, implying a rough 19–23% reduction vs. scheduled benefits under the baseline. Exact impacts depend on future conditions and policy. Social Security
6) Is DI (disability) at risk too?
Under the 2025 baseline, DI is not projected to deplete within 75 years. Social Security
7) Do analysts think it could run out even earlier?
Some post-report analyses suggest certain 2025 policy changes could advance the date (e.g., toward 2032). Those are estimates, not the Trustees’ official baseline. Bipartisan Policy Center+1
“Source:” callouts (sensitive facts)
- Trustees 2025 (official baseline) — OASI 2033 (77%), combined 2034 (81%), DI solvent; actuarial deficit 3.82% payroll; unfunded obligation $25.1T. Source: SSA—2025 OASDI Trustees Report (Highlights/Conclusion), last checked Sep 28, 2025. Social Security
- CBO 2025 corroboration — Combined exhaustion 2034. Source: CBO Social Security topic page, last checked Sep 28, 2025. Congressional Budget Office
- Worsening imbalance / earlier date — Source: CRFB 2025 analysis, last checked Sep 28, 2025. CRFB
- Uncertainty & interpretation — Source: CBPP 2025 brief, last checked Sep 28, 2025. Center on Budget and Policy Priorities+1
- Post-report acceleration scenarios — Source: BPC explainer (Aug 2025 update); CRR note on scenario impacts, last checked Sep 28, 2025. Bipartisan Policy Center+1
Key takeaways & next steps
Takeaways:
- Official 2025 baseline: OASI 2033, combined 2034, 77–81% payable; DI not depleted in 75 years. Social Security
- The long-term gap widened (3.82% of payroll; $25.1T PV). Acting sooner reduces the size and pain of fixes. Social Security
- CBO essentially agrees on 2034 for combined funds; outside estimates vary with assumptions. Congressional Budget Office
Next steps:
- Model your retirement plan assuming baseline payable shares in the early 2030s.
- Revisit annually after each Trustees/CBO update.
- Coordinate claiming, withdrawals, and Medicare/IRMAA with a qualified advisor to build resilience.