Quick answer: The 2026 COLA, in one minute
Early estimates put the 2026 Social Security COLA around 2.7%–2.8%. That range is based on July and August 2025 CPI-W readings and the standard SSA formula; the official figure arrives in October after September CPI-W posts. Expect a modest raise in gross benefits, with some of it likely offset by a projected Medicare Part B premium increase. AARP+3Social Security+3Social Security+3
Bottom line: Plan for a ~2.7%–2.8% bump, then check your net after Medicare.
Disclaimer: This is education, not individualized financial advice. Confirm numbers with SSA/CMS and your advisor.
How COLA is calculated (and why CPI-W matters)
SSA calculates the annual COLA by comparing the average CPI-W for Q3 (Jul–Aug–Sep) to the same quarter the prior year. If the index rises, benefits go up by the same percentage. No increase = no COLA. This is set in law and administered by SSA. Social Security
- Benchmark: Q3 2024’s CPI-W average ≈ 308.729.
- 2026 COLA compares Q3 2025’s average to that 308.729 base. Social Security
Bottom line: The 2026 COLA depends on one number we don’t have yet—September’s CPI-W.
Source: SSA “COLA Information,” last checked: September 17, 2025. Social Security
Where the numbers stand today (July & August CPI-W + baselines)
Here’s what’s in hand:
- CPI-W July 2025: 316.349
- CPI-W August 2025: 317.306
- Q3 2024 average: 308.729 (Jul 308.501, Aug 308.640, Sep 309.046)
Values are on the 1982–84=100 scale. Social Security
Independent trackers now peg the 2026 COLA at 2.7%–2.8% based on those prints and typical September seasonality. Investopedia+1
Bottom line: With two months in, the math points to a high-2% COLA unless September sharply surprises up/down.
Source: SSA Office of the Chief Actuary CPI-W table; media citing TSCL & Mary Johnson, last checked: September 17, 2025. Social Security+2Investopedia+2
Forecast scenarios if September is hot or cool
To land a 2.7% COLA, Q3 2025’s average needs to be about 317.058. Given July (316.349) and August (317.306), that implies September ≈ 317.518.
To land 2.8%, the Q3 average needs about 317.366, implying September ≈ 318.444. Those are plausible ranges given recent inflation readings. (Method: solve for the September index that lifts the three-month average.) Social Security
Context: August CPI reports showed inflation re-accelerating to ~2.9% y/y (CPI-U), but the CPI-W subset is what matters for COLA and has been running in the high-2s. Reuters+1
Bottom line: A final COLA between ~2.6% and 3.0% is the realistic band; most estimates cluster at 2.7%–2.8%. Investopedia+1
What this means in dollars (gross vs. net after Medicare Part B)
Using SSA’s August 2025 average retired worker benefit ($2,008.31) for illustrations: Social Security
| Scenario | COLA % | Gross monthly increase | New gross benefit | If Part B = $206.50 (proj.), net change after +$21.50 premium |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooler print | 2.6% | $52.22 | $2,060.53 | +$30.72 |
| Base case | 2.7% | $54.22 | $2,062.53 | +$32.72 |
| Popular estimate | 2.8% | $56.23 | $2,064.54 | +$34.73 |
| Hotter print | 3.0% | $60.25 | $2,068.56 | +$38.75 |
- The standard Part B premium is projected (by the Medicare Trustees) to rise from $185 (2025 actual) to $206.50 in 2026. Final figures typically arrive in October/November. Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services+1
- Higher-income enrollees may owe IRMAA surcharges for Parts B/D, which further reduce the net benefit. Kiplinger
Bottom line: Your gross COLA may be in the mid-$50s, but your net raise could feel more like low-to-mid $30s after the expected Part B increase (and less with IRMAA/Part D).
Sources: SSA “Monthly Statistical Snapshot” (Aug 2025); CMS 2025 Part B fact sheet; Medicare Trustees/AARP projection to 2026, last checked: September 17, 2025. Social Security+2Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services+2
Key dates: When will we know the official COLA?
- September CPI-W release: Wednesday, Oct 15, 2025 (BLS schedule).
- SSA COLA announcement: mid-October right after the September CPI release. NARFE+1
Bottom line: Expect the official 2026 COLA mid-October; checks with the new amount start January 2026.
Plan ahead: 2026 COLA readiness checklist
- Estimate your personal raise: Multiply your current gross benefit by 0.027–0.028 to get a quick range. Then subtract a projected +$21.50 for Part B (adjust if you pay IRMAA). AARP
- Log into my Social Security: Confirm your benefit amount, banking details, and any withholding.
- Budget for medical costs: If you have Part D or a Medicare Advantage plan, check 2026 premiums and drug costs—they can change independently of Part B. Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services
- Review income for IRMAA: 2026 surcharges look at 2024 MAGI; consider timing of Roth conversions/withdrawals and potential IRMAA appeals. Kiplinger
- Set alerts for October: When SSA and CMS issue final numbers, update your budget and autopay bills.
Bottom line: Treat the COLA as a raise you’ll mostly keep—but not all of it once Medicare premiums update.
Comparison: 2025 vs 2026—what’s changing?
| Item | 2025 | 2026 (projected/likely) |
|---|---|---|
| COLA | 2.5% (official) | ~2.7%–2.8% until SSA confirms in Oct. Investopedia |
| Average retired worker benefit used for examples | ~$2,006.69 (July 2025) / $2,008.31 (Aug) | New amount = 2025 value × (1 + official COLA). Social Security+1 |
| Medicare Part B standard premium | $185 (final) | $206.50 projected by Trustees (final amt TBD). Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services+1 |
Bottom line: 2026 likely brings a slightly bigger COLA than 2025, but a bigger Part B bill too.
Notes on sources & “last-checked” stamps (for sensitive facts)
- Method/Formula: Source: SSA “COLA Information,” last checked: September 17, 2025. Social Security
- CPI-W monthly and 2024 Q3 baseline: Source: SSA OACT CPI-W table (BLS data), last checked: September 17, 2025. Social Security
- Forecast range (2.7%–2.8%): Sources: TSCL; Barron’s; Investopedia; last checked: September 17, 2025. The Senior Citizens League+2Barron’s+2
- Average benefit (Aug 2025): Source: SSA Monthly Statistical Snapshot, last checked: September 17, 2025. Social Security
- Medicare premiums: Sources: CMS 2025 final Part B; AARP article citing 2025 Trustees projection for 2026; last checked: September 17, 2025. Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services+1
FAQs
Q1. What is the projected 2026 Social Security COLA?
Most estimates fall between 2.7% and 2.8%, pending September’s CPI-W. SSA announces the official rate in mid-October. Investopedia+2Barron’s+2
Q2. How does SSA calculate the COLA?
By comparing the average CPI-W for July–September to the same quarter a year earlier. The percentage change becomes the COLA. Social Security
Q3. When will my higher 2026 benefit arrive?
The new amount applies to January 2026 payments (with the normal payment-date schedule). Final percent is released in October 2025. Social Security
Q4. What’s the average dollar increase I should expect?
On the $2,008.31 average retired worker benefit (Aug 2025), a 2.7% COLA is about +$54/month before Medicare; 2.8% is about +$56. Social Security
Q5. How will Medicare Part B affect my raise?
If the standard Part B premium rises to $206.50 (projection), it could absorb ~$21.50 of your monthly increase; IRMAA surcharges can reduce net benefits further. AARP+1
Q6. Does CPI-E (elderly index) change my COLA?
No. COLA uses CPI-W by law. CPI-E is experimental and not used for Social Security adjustments. Social Security
Q7. Can I estimate my own 2026 benefit now?
Yes: Your 2025 gross benefit × (1 + 0.027 to 0.028) gives a ballpark gross; then subtract your expected Part B (and IRMAA/Part D if applicable). AARP